The Slow Shift Nobody Modeled: How Multi-Year Atmospheric Trends Are Producing Earnings Surprises That Analyst Consensus Keeps Getting Wrong
While markets remain focused on the earnings disruption caused by discrete weather events — hurricanes, ice storms, heat waves — a more consequential and far less examined risk is accumulating beneath the surface: the gradual, multi-year drift of weather patterns away from the historical baselines that most sell-side analyst models still treat as fixed assumptions. This structural misalignment between the climate reality enterprises are operating in and the atmospheric assumptions embedded in co